Feb. 15, 2013, 10 p.m.
THE thing about long election campaigns is that you're far more likely to trip over a politician at the shops.
At a bus stop in Newcastle last week, Liberal candidate Jaimie Abbott trotted among the masses with a support crew in matching campaign T-shirts and handfuls of glossy brochures. The punters complained about the carbon tax, the cost of living, Julia Gillard's voice, the sky falling in and how the Hunter always gets kicked in the guts.
And she's not related to Tony Abbott, by the way. That's the question everyone asks.
On the western side of Lake Macquarie, the face of Labor's Greg Combet is more familiar to the punters - the bloke with the wide-rimmed glasses. The former union boss who got stuck with the somewhat grisly job of selling the carbon tax.
Even before Gillard announced the September 14 federal election, the locals were phoning the Newcastle Herald to complain about the election posters.
The fence outside the old Belmont airport had become an edifice for John Church, the former television newsreader turned Liberal candidate for Shortland. Jaimie Abbott's noggin started appearing in shop windows and on billboards.
The Big Sell had already begun.
Given the pending retirement of Sharon Grierson in the seat of Newcastle, Abbott will face off against Labor's Sharon Claydon, who has been cutting her political teeth on Newcastle City Council.
"Different face, same old party," Abbott said this week. "The time for change has come.
"It's going to be tough to take this seat from rusted-on Labor, but I genuinely believe people have had enough."
She needs to hope that about 10,000 additional rusted-on Labor types have had enough by September. Labor has never lost the seat of Newcastle and in spite of the hammering the party took at the 2010 election, Labor came home with a 12.5 per cent two-party preferred winning margin.
For Claydon, a "certain amount of vulnerability" comes with stepping into a role being vacated by a sitting MP.
"Also, the political landscape has shifted enormously in Newcastle," she said. "The Liberals control state and local government in Newcastle now, so yeah, I have a tough battle on my hands.
"The Liberals will continue with their scare campaign, but I am very proud to run under the Labor flag, and proud of the $2 billion investment we have brought to Newcastle since 2007."
John Church was also out of the campaign blocks early.
"I was preselected in October so the campaign for me began then," he said. "This is a safe Labor seat, so for me to make a difference I have to get out there and earn respect and trust. And when I'm out there, I find a lot of dissatisfaction in the community. Everywhere I go there is a mood for change."
In Shortland, Church will take on Labor's Jill Hall, who got home with a 12.9 per cent margin in 2010.
Combet knows his government is in for the fight of its life.
"At a national level this will be tough," he said. "Everyone can read polls.
"Unfortunately politics tends to get sidetracked by personalities and allegations, but it's not the Punch and Judy Show you see on the nightly news. There's a lot at stake.
"There are important things to consider like the NBN. We're for it, they're against it. Clean energy: we're for it, they're against it. The school kids bonus: we're for it, they're against it. There's mental health, dental care, the National Disability Insurance Scheme that Labor developed and is being trialled in the Hunter. We've just got to keep arguing our case.
"Despite the fear campaigns, the carbon tax issue has settled down and there was no death, doom or destruction, and there is now evidence that it is working."
Bob Baldwin, the Liberal Member for Paterson, laughed.
"He should stop walking around with his head in the clouds," Baldwin said. "He should try telling that to the people I see every day who are struggling to pay their power bills and put food on the table. The sky did fall in for a lot of people, and I see them lining up outside the Centrelink office next door every day - a lot of them had jobs in the mines."
The Liberals are yet to announce an opponent for Combet in Charlton, while Michael Johnsen will run for the Nationals against Labor's Joel Fitzgibbon in the seat of Hunter. But it's Newcastle and Shortland the Liberals are focused on, where they'll have to beat the Greens as well.
In 2010, Newcastle councillor Michael Osborne pulled almost 16 per cent of the primary vote for the Greens in Newcastle - that's about one in six voters.
In Shortland, Phillipa Parsons earned more than 10 per cent of the primary vote for the Greens.
The Greens will stand candidates in every Hunter seat, with Osborne most likely to stand again in Newcastle.
Labor has no candidate yet to take on Liberal Bob Baldwin and his 5.3 per cent margin in Paterson.
As for the seat of Lyne, in towns such as Gloucester in the Upper Hunter, Independent Rob Oakshott will get some opposition from the Nationals' David Gillespie, but like the Liberals down the valley, the Nationals will need to find about 10,000 more friends than they did in 2010 to win it.
STATE OF PLAY
NEWCASTLE
Held by Labor with a two-party preferred margin of 12.5%.
Labor candidate: Sharon Claydon (Replacing the retiring Sharon Grierson).
Liberal candidate: Jaimie Abbott.
CHARLTON
Held by Labor with a two-party preferred margin of 12.7%.
Sitting Labor Member: Greg Combet.
Liberal candidate: Not announced.
SHORTLAND
Held by Labor with a two-party preferred 12.9% margin.
Sitting Labor Member: Jill Hall.
Liberal candidate: John Church.
HUNTER
Held by Labor with a two-party preferred margin of 12.5%.
Sitting Labor Member: Joel Fitzgibbon.
Nationals candidate: Michael Johnsen.
PATERSON
Held by Liberals with a two-party preferred margin of 5.3%.
Sitting Liberal Member: Bob Baldwin.
Labor candidate: Not announced.
LYNE
Held by Independent with a two-party preferred margin of 12.7%.
Sitting Independent Member: Rob Oakshott.
Nationals candidate: David Gillespie.
Federal electorates in the Hunter Region
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