LET Ray Thomas pick you a winner at Rosehill and Caulfield with all the Saturday tips and late mail ahead of a huge day's racing.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Weather: Warm, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 31C.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: True
BE WARY
Racing returns to Rosehill today after a three-week break and, given a week of fine, warm weather, the track should be in perfect order for the opening day.
The rail is in the true position but generally jockeys do steer away from the inside rail in the straight, preferring to be about three horses off the fence.
THE BEST BET
I do like Hoylonny (race 3). He has had two runs back from a spell and has impressed both times, particularly his last effort when closing late for second behind Bello over 1500m here three weeks ago.
Bello has since franked that form by winning the Newcastle Newmarket midweek.
Hoylonny steps up to 1900m today, which puts him into his ideal distance range. When last in work, he reeled off three successive wins over the Rosehill 2000m course, each featuring patient Jim Cassidy rides.
The combination seems well suited in the Sky High Stakes. With even luck, Hoylonny will be right in the finish.
THE NEXT BEST
Pierro (race 8) is yet to win outside of his own age group but at his only previous attempt he ran the bravest of thirds to Ocean Park and arch rival All Too Hard in the Cox Plate, proving his competitiveness against older horses.
Resumed with a narrow but typically tough win in the Hobartville Stakes on a very heavy track here three weeks ago and trainer Gai Waterhouse has given the colt plenty of time to get over that run.
Although dropping back from 1400m to 1300m today, he's been kept fresh and will wear blinkers to sharpen him up. He is unbeaten in eight Sydney starts and a five-time winner at this track.
This is a terrific sprint field with the likes of stablemate and champion mare More Joyous, Moment Of Change and Rain Affair but I have a suspicion that Pierro's race fitness, obvious like for Rosehill and his fierce will to win gives him the edge.
VALUE BET
Maluckyday (race 6) has produced two eye-catching efforts over unsuitably short trips since resuming. He ran on strongly late when a first-up fifth to All Too Hard in the Futurity Stakes then again was doing his best work late when sixth to dead-heaters Budriguez and Puissance De Lune in the Blamey Stakes.
Steps up to 2000m today which is more to his liking and the firm track conditions suit. This race should be run at an even tempo which would enable Maluckyday to unleash his late surge. He is great value around the $14 mark.
THE BIG MONEY
In what is shaping as a super raceday, there is value for punters in most races. The best-backed runner has been Charlie Boy (race 4) in the Todman Stakes. Charlie Boy has firmed from $4.20 to $3.80 after bets of $2000 at $4.20, $2500 at $4, $1000 at $4, $2000 at $3.80 and $500 at $3.60.
In the same race, Whiskey Allround is $6-$5 after bets of $2000 at $6, $900 at $5.50 and $1900 at $5.50, while Fast 'N' Rocking is $9 to $8.50 after bets of $1000 at $9, $600 at $9 and $500 at $9.
In the other Slipper lead-up, the Reisling Stakes (race 2), Villa Verde has been well backed from $2.70 to $2.60 after numerous bets of $1000 at $2.70. Overreach has eased slightly from $1.45 to $1.55.
Hoylonny (race 3) has been well supported, firming from $6.50 to $4.60 with bets of $1500 at $6.50, $400 at $6.50 and $500 at $5.50.
In race 5, Ashokan is $4.80 to $3.80 after bets of $500 at $4.80, $2000 at $4.60 and $500 at $4.60.
The Coolmore Classic is an open betting race but there has been good money for Norzita, who has firmed from $8 to $5.50 after bets of $750 at $8, $1600 at $7.50, $500 at $7 and $1500 at $6.50, Zurella is $51 into $26 after bets of $400 each-way at $51, $250 each way at $41, $1000 at $11 (place only) and $1500 at $9 (place only), while Dear Demi is $7 to $5.50 after bets of $500 at $7, $2000 at $6.50, $1500 at $6 and $1500 at $5.50.
Pierro (race 8) is solid at $2.40 after a bet of $20,000 at $2.50 while Moment Of Change has firmed from $6 to $4.80 after bets of $2500 at $6 and $500 at $5.
In race 9, Snitsky is $11 to $8.50 after bets of $1000 each way at $11, $800 at $9 and $500 at $9, and Ying La has firmed from $13 to $9.50 after a bet of $1200 at $10.
CAULFIELD
Weather: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and a forecast top temperature of 25C.
Track: Dead (4)
Rail: True
BE WARY
Caulfield's track surface should have an upgrade to good, probably after the first race, unless forecast showers do sweep the area.
All runners should get their chance at Caulfield today. Race tempo, rather than track bias, is the key at both venues.
THE BEST BET
Undeniably (race 6) is racing in great heart. He won the Christmas Stakes here four starts back and his three runs in top grade since have been very good.
He ran sixth to Sea Lord in the Group 2 Australia Stakes before his fourth to Mrs Onassis in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and then his fourth to Shamexpress in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap.
He drops back to Listed level today against significantly weaker opposition and he is only 3.5kg over the limit.
He's very fit, drawn well, in top form and he has a good Caulfield record. Undeniably ticks all the boxes.
THE NEXT BEST
Whisper Downs (race 2) has never been in better form, winning twice here over summer before three successive placings including a last start effort when runner-up to Keep Cool at Flemington.
He has had seven starts at Caulfield for three wins and two placings and he is a winner of today's course and distance.
Star apprentice Chad Schofield's 1.5kg claim brings Whisper Downs in well at the weights. He looks very hard to beat again.
VALUE BET
Dazzler (race 6) is a talented filly laced to advantage today. Her first-up effort at stakes level put the writing on the wall as she had little luck but still hit the line strongly for sixth to Crystal Web at Flemington over 1100m.
Fitter now and going to 1400m is what she needs now. She is a winner second-up previously and this is not a strong race. Well worth something each way at odds of around $7.
THE BIG MONEY
Northern Jewel (race 1) has commanded most support, firming from $2.20 to $1.90 after bets of $2000 at $2.20 and $1500 at $2.
In race 2, Second King is $8.50 into $6 after solid support, including bets of $300 at $8.50, $600 at $7.50 and $500 at $6.50.
Sharnee Rose (race 3) has firmed from $15 to $9 after bets of $350 at $15, $600 at $13 and $800 at $11.
Garud (race 4) is $15 into $12 after bets of $400 at $15 and $500 at $13.
Hamam (race 5) is $6 to $5.50 after a wager of $2300 at $6.
Smokin Joey (race 6) has firmed from $17 to $12 after a big bet of $3000/$2000 at $16/$4.75, Undeniably has been well backed firming from $5.50 to $4.60 after bets of $1200 at $5.50 and $1500 at $4.80, and Club Command is $10 into $8.50 after bets of $900 each way at $10 and $1000 at $9.
In race 8, Royal Amati has been a big firmer from $12 to $5.50 after bets of $350 each way at $12, $300 at $8 and $1000 at $7.
INTERSTATE
Doomben race 4: Hold Me Tight
Doomben race 5: Margins
Morphettville race 2: Viking Star
Morphettville race 8: Cape Clear
PROVINCIAL MAIL
Newcastle race 7: Trick Shot
Newcastle race 8: Soaring Miss
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