The 2013 season reaches the end of its first month and there are already clear frontrunners and glaring wooden spoon contenders. This holiday weekend provides an opportunity for some teams to stake a real claim for a finals charge, while for others, it's already make-or-break time. But the luminous highlight of Round 4 is destined to be the Good Friday return of Easter Benny Barba.
I'VE LEFT THE DIARY CLEAR FOR:
The Good Friday showdown between Canterbury and South Sydney provides everything you could hope for in a blockbuster: history (this is the 146th match between the clubs), recent rivalry (the Bulldogs bounced the Rabbitohs out in the preliminary final last year), a bumper crowd (expect 40,000-plus at ANZ Stadium), attacking superstars (Inglis, Barba, Merritt, Morris), big, dynamic forwards (Pritchard, Eastwood, Te'o, Burgess), players gunning for representative jerseys (J. Reynolds, A. Reynolds, Sutton, Tolman, Jackson, Merritt). The return of Ben Barba adds another element to a feverishly anticipated encounter. Last year's Good Friday clash between these sides was a cracker, with Andrew Everingham starring in just his fourth NRL game with two tries and a magical hand in another as Souths prevailed 20-10.
AND WHILE I'M ON THE COUCH....
With only a couple of hours to catch your breath after Bulldogs v Souths, the Friday night match featuring Brisbane and Melbourne is also shaping as a beauty. The Storm are on fire and have had the wood on the Broncos for several seasons, but have had trouble putting them away at Suncorp Stadium. Melbourne hasn't beaten the Broncos by more than 10 points in Brisbane since 2004, while last year's late-season clash was a 19-18 thriller won by the eventual premiers over a Broncos side in the midst of a long losing streak. Brisbane has copped it from all angles after failing to register a point against the Roosters and the players will be smarting. They may not pull off a win, but the Broncos – particularly if Justin Hodges is back and can see out the match – could give the Storm their sternest test so far this year.
IT'S A BIG WEEKEND FOR:
The Warriors – it's now or never for Matt Elliott and his struggling bunch. Even when the Warriors have been travelling terribly in the past, you could count on them being physical and being able to produce tries out of nothing. Those qualities have been severely lacking so far in 2013. Elliott needs to somehow flick a switch in his ultra-talented squad, or he can start thinking about joining Brian McClennan on the dole queue. The Warriors face heavyweights Souths and Melbourne in April; it's curtains for their finals their finals hopes if they can't get a win up against the Cowboys. It could be as simple as making their first appearance at Mt Smart for the year to turn the enigmatic Warriors' fortunes around.
IT COULD BE A LONG WEEKEND FOR:
A fiery local derby could be just the tonic the beleaguered Dragons need to resurrect their season – but I can't see it happening against a Cronulla side still riding the emotion of its recent tumult; the Sharks are starting to hit their straps and could rack up a score on the Saints. Incidentally, Cronulla's biggest win over the joint venture was a 40-4 spanking at Sharks Stadium in 2007.
MY BIG BPL PREDICTION:
-A big upset is on the cards with the Warriors getting off the mark against North Queensland in their first match of 2013 at Mt Smart.
REPRESENTATIVE WATCH:
-Talk of rep spots has centred on a host of emerging NSW Origin contenders, including Josh Reynolds, Adam Reynolds and John Sutton. But there is an Australian Test team to be selected in just three weeks' time to take on the Kiwis, with a few places still up for grabs. Unlikely to significantly change a successful Kangaroos line-up, selectors will stick with the bulk of the 17-man squad that defeated the Kiwis 18-10 in Townsville in October last year. Josh Morris is in the box seat to hold off brilliant but injury-prone Justin Hodges and retain a centre spot alongside Greg Inglis. Twin brother Brett has a tougher task keeping his wing berth, with Akuila Uate in electrifying form for Newcastle. Uate's poor Origin series in 2012 (he was dropped after game two in favour of Morris) may count against him. Nathan Merritt is worthy of a debut, but won't get one. Knights fullback Darius Boyd would be stiff to miss out on the other wing spot – he has been outstanding for a number of seasons on the flank for Queensland and Australia. Tony Williams will almost certainly lose his place in the squad after starting at lock last year in possibly the only change to the engine-room contingent; Luke Lewis, Ben Te'o and Sam Thaiday are among the leading contenders to replace the misfiring Canterbury behemoth. Robbie Farah has done enough to keep the bench utility role. The Canberra-hosted Test is an important step towards regaining the World Cup at the end of the year for the Kangaroos.
-New Zealand Test coach Stephen Kearney may be ruing the decision to strip Benji Marshall of the captaincy in favour of Warriors skipper Simon Mannering. Marshall has barely fired a shot in the black-and-white jumper since his spellbinding performance in the 2010 Four Nations final, and the demotion could spark the mercurial five-eighth to deliver at Test level – he has showed glimpses of returning to his glorious best so for this season for the Wests Tigers. But the Warriors have been disgracefully directionless so far in 2013, with Mannering among the worst of up to a dozen players performing well below par. On current form, the usually ultra-consistent backrower would struggle to win a place in the Kiwis' starting line-up – but of course, as captain, he will be picked. Kearney has effectively shot himself in the foot before his World Cup defence has properly begun.
-Canterbury backrower Josh Jackson is a hot tip for a Country Origin call-up – but I'd say he is a certainty for the side, and a strong contender for a NSW debut soon afterwards. Jackson is among a group of outstanding young forwards gunning for a Blues jumper; incumbents Paul Gallen, Greg Bird, Luke Lewis and Anthony Watmough are all almost certain to retain a spot in the 17 for game one (ASADA investigation outcomes pending), but Ben Creagh is no chance, Tony Williams needs a major form surge and Beau Scott's prospects are 50/50 at best. Jackson, Canberra workhorse Shaun Fensom and classy Sharks backrower Wade Graham are waiting in the wings.
-Despite a solid start to his stint on the Gold Coast, big David Taylor faces an uphill battle regaining the Queensland jumper he lost to Ben Te'o for the 2012 decider. Te'o, effectively Taylor's replacement at Souths, would be unlucky to miss out. The Maroons No.13 spot will be prove troublesome for coach Mal Meninga and the selection panel – Corey Parker is the incumbent, after coming into the line-up for the decider for long-serving lock Ashley Harrison, who was ruled out with injury. A disappointment in his maiden Origin campaign, Matt Gillett has put his hand up to be retained with a stellar start to 2013. If Meninga and co. are looking at another backrower, they could do worse than picking Te'o's Rabbitohs second-row partner Chris McQueen. The Kingaroy product, a converted winger, has been in the Emerging Origin squad for two years and represented the Prime Minsiter's XIII (coached by Meninga) last year – he is very much on Queensland's radar. He is the kind of tough, mobile and wholehearted forward Meninga loves having in his teams.
5 MOUTH-WATERING INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS:
-Kiwi Test halves partners, Kieran Foran v Benji Marshall
-Greg Inglis v Ben Barba – does it get any better?
-The master Johnathan Thurston v the misfiring Shaun Johnson
-Ben Te'o v returning hitman Frank Pritchard
-In-form, dynamic backrowers Greg Bird v Sika Manu
HOODOO GURUS:
-North Queensland has won just one of its last seven in Auckland.
-The Raiders boast just two wins in their last 11 starts at Newcastle.
-Gold Coast has not won at Penrith since its 2007 debut season.
-The Broncos have recorded just two wins in 13 games against the Storms since the 2006 Grand Final.
-South Sydney is gunning for its first 4-0 start to a season since 1971 – the last year the club won a premiership.
ROUND 4 SCHEDULE (all times local)
Thursday
8:05pm – Manly Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers at Bluetongue Stadium. TIP: Sea Eagles by 6
Friday
4.00pm – Canterbury Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium. TIP: Bulldogs by 1
7.05pm – Brisbane Broncos v Melbourne Storm at Suncorp Stadium. TIP: Storm by 10
Saturday
7.30pm – Cronulla Sharks v St George Illawarra Dragons at Sharks Stadium. TIP: Sharks by 14
Sunday
3.00pm – Penrith Panthers v Gold Coast Titans at Centrebet Stadium. TIP: Panthers by 2
6.30pm – Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders at Hunter Stadium. TIP: Knights by 7
Monday
6:00pm – New Zealand Warriors v North Queensland Cowboys at Mt Smart Stadium. TIP: Warriors by 2
7.00pm – Sydney Roosters v Parramatta Eels at Allianz Stadium. TIP: Roosters by 4
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