Stephen Elliott, acting regional director at the Bureau of Meteorology, says the bureau can give a long-range forecast with a "moderate to high" level of accuracy for the next few months.
He explains there's a good chance of an El Nino weather pattern developing, with the odds currently at about 50% which is double what you'd normally see.
The risk had been up to 75% but Stephen says a warming trend in the central and southern Pacific has eased.
"An El Nino typically leads to hot and dry conditions over the eastern States of Australia," Stephen says.
Even without an El Nino, both day and night-time temperatures are looking warmer for spring, Stephen predicts, especially in the south of NSW.
Rainfall is expected to be drier than normal over central and southern NSW, but average for the rest of the State.
"There will be a higher likelihood of heat waves, especially if the El Nino does develop," Stephen says.
For the eastern half of NSW there's an elevated risk of high fire danger.
As for flooding, Stephen says we won't see the widespread flooding that usually comes in La Nina years.
But he says there will still be individual instances of major floods, with 79 flood warnings issued in NSW last year.
If you're not planning quite so far ahead, the forecast for the remainder of this week for Newcastle is a warm day tomorrow with a maximum of 24 and a possible thunderstorm.
Wednesday and Thursday will be mostly sunny with maximums between 18 and 21.
But by Friday and Saturday there's a chance of showers returning, with the daytime maximum dipping to 17.
You can find long-range forecasts on the Bureau of Meteorology website.
Stephen Elliott spoke to Jill Emberson on 1233 ABC Newcastle Mornings.
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