Source: Herald Sun - Herald Sun

Source: Herald Sun

DAILY Telegraph racing writer Ray Thomas reveals his tips ahead of a big day of racing at Warwick Farm and Caulfield.

WARWICK FARM

Weather: Fine, warm day with chance of afternoon showers and a forecast top temperature of 34 degrees.

Track: Good (3)

Rail: 3m out

CAULFIELD

Weather: Mostly sunny, warm day with a forecast top temperature of 30 degrees.

Track: Dead (4)

Rail: 6m out

BE WARY: Warwick Farm hasn't been racing better in years. The track has an excellent cover of grass and has coped better than expected with the extra workload given Randwick has been out of play. The rail is out 3m today but the track should race fairly with the only concern the forecast of afternoon showers in Sydney. Caulfield's rail is out 6m and with small fields most of the day, race tempo will be crucial.

WARWICK FARM

THE BEST BET: Marden (race 3) doesn't win often but he may never get a better chance than today. He has been racing very consistently without winning over summer including his last start third behind Kukri at Rosehill three weeks ago. He has been unsuited by moderate race tempo in recent runs but continues to hit the line strongly. The step up to 2200m looks ideal now. He was once considered vulnerable beyond 2000m but is now a tough, seasoned campaigner. This is not a strong race and Marden is a standout. He should win.

THE NEXT BEST: Jordan (race 4) is ready to win after two excellent runs since resuming. He was very good first-up when edged out in a three-way photo for third to Happy Galaxy at Rosehill. Happy Galaxy has since won twice by big margins including the Zeditave Stakes and is favourite for the Expressway Stakes today. Jordan then ran a competitive fourth behind Zin Zan Eddie at Warwick Farm in another strong form race. Almighty Charge was second that day and has since won, while Knoydart finished just behind Jordan in fifth position and he is favourite for the Autumn Stakes at Caulfield today. The formlines around Jordan are very good, he steps up to 1600m today which suits, and he did win third-up last preparation. He ticks all the boxes.

VALUE BET: Fast Clip (race 8) has been disappointing in two runs from a spell but I'm anticipating a vastly improved showing today. He's the best horse in the race and did run fifth in a Doncaster Mile last autumn. Signficantly, he is third-up at 1600m today and last autumn he was able to win at that same stage of his preparationg in the Doncaster Prelude. Drawn nicely in barrier one, has Jim Cassidy in the saddle, this is his ideal distance, and he will be up on the speed throughout. He's way over the odds around $10. Terrific each way value.

CAULFIELD

THE BEST BET: Knoydart (race 5) is a richly talented colt making his Melbourne debut. Underlined his emerging potential when he romped home five lengths clear of his rivals in a maiden at Warwick Farm then had absolutely no luck when a closing fifth behind Zin Zan Eddie at Warwick Farm. Drawn out in barrier eight today which will suit Knoydart as he seemed to resent racing inside horses last start. This is a big jump in class for Knoydart but he has the ability to cope. He just needs even luck in running as he has a superior burst of acceleration. Back him with confidence.

THE NEXT BEST: Loveyamadly (race 9) has returned to racing in outstanding form. She dominated first-up winning at Ballarat then again won with real authority over 1100m at Caulfield last start. Lightly raced but very promising mare by Black Caviar's sire Bel Esprit who has good gate speed, puts herself into a contest early, and is always strong late in her races. She beat a similar field pointlessly last start and should continue her winning momentum.

VALUE BET: Highly Recommended (race 8) was freshened after a two-race Sydney summer campaign that included a very close sixth in the Villiers Stakes before he ran sixth behind Le Remas in the Dillon Stakes two weeks ago. He goes from 1400m to his preferred 1600m distance today and will be improved by that last start effort. In a race of many chances, I can envisage Highly Recommended settling in a forward position, moving into the race on the home turn and proving tough to pass in the straight. At $21, he is an each way special!.

THE BIG MONEY:

WARWICK FARM

The first race for the two-year-olds has attracted plenty of punter interest on TAB fixed odds. All The Talk has firmed from $3.40 to $3 after bets of $3600 and $1000 at $3.40, $2000 and $1000 at $3.20, while there has been good money for Sugar Rush who is solid at $2.60 after bets of $2000 [twice] and $1367 at those odds. In race 2, Servante is $4.60 to $4.20 after a bet of $1250 at $4.60. Marden (race 3) is all the rage, firming from $4.60 to $4.40 after a big bet of $5000 at $4.60. Laser Flash is $7 into $6 after bets of $1000 at $7 and $500 at $6. In race 4, the big firmer is Unimpeachable who has firmed from $13 to $5 after bets of $500 at $11, $3000/$1000 at $9.50/$3.12, $400 at $9 and $400 at $7.50. Race 5 is wide open with money for Net Worth $500 at $15, My Vegas $101 to $51 after a bet of $100 each way a t$101/$20.04, Ying La $17 to $11 after bets of $600 at $17, $3000 at $15 and $2000 at $13, and Charge Account is $1.80 to $1.75 after bets of $3000 at $1.80 and $4000 and $1000 at $1.75. In race 8, Single is $26 to $13 after bets of $200 at $26, $200 at $21, $500 each way at $17/$5 and $500 at $14, Zakynthos Imprintz $13 to $9.50 with bets of $500/$1000 at $13/$4, and $600/ $2000 at $11/$3.50, Gazza Guru is $51 to $35 abnd Havana Rey $500 each way at $9.50/$3.12.

CAULFIELD

The first Group 1 race of the year, the C.F. Orr Stakes and crack colt All Too Hard is the only horse punters want to back. All Too Hard has firmed from $2.50 to $2.35 after bets of $2000 at $2.40 and $2000 at $2.35. Callanish is firm at $8 after a bet of $1500 at those odds. In race 1, Dayita is $6 to $5 after a bet of $1500 at $6 and Zlatan is $13 to $8.50. In race 2 Sumakaray is $3.20 to $2.90 after bets of $1500 and $1000 [thrice] at $3.20, Angelic Light is $12 to $11 after bets of $900 at $12 and $700 at $11 and Balaclava Lady is $17 to $12 after $500 at $17. Dissident (race 3) is $3.50 to $3.40 after bets of $600 at $3.50 and $1500 at $3.30, good money for first starter The Bowler who is $7.50 into $5.50 after big bets of $2000 at $7 and $800 at $6. Guelph (race 4) is solid at $1.70 after a bet of $1000 at those odds, Montsegur has firmed from $5.50 to $4.40 after bets of $600 and $400 at $5.50 and $500 at $4.60, Quest For eace $1000 at $6.50, Blue Palace $500 at $12, Godiva Rock is $26 to $21 after bets of $400 at $26 and $250 at $21. In race 5, Adebisi $1000 at $3.20, Outlandish Lad is $4.40 to $4 after a bet of $800 at $4.40), Shanghai Warrior is $7 to $6.50 and Mister Milton is $14 to $12 after a bet of $500 at $13. In race 6, Super Cool is $8.50 to $8, Haussman $16 to $13 after a bet of $400 at $14, Mulaazem has firmed from $10 to $4.60 after big bets of $500 at $10, $2000 at $8, $600 at $6.50, $1300 at $5.50 and $500 at $5, Knoydart $1000 at $3.30, Eye The World $500 at $17 and High Shot $1280 at $4. In race 8, Foreteller is $5 to $4.80 after a bet of $3000 at $5, Budriguez is $6.50 to $6 after a bet of $1000 at $6.50, Prairie Star is $6.50 to $4.40 with bets of $400 at $6.50 $400 at $5.50, Gold Sand is $26 to $21 after a bet of $300 at $26. In race 9, Loveyamadly $2000 at $3.

INTERSTATE

Eagle Farm race 3: What Happenedhenry

Eagle Farm race 7: Better Than Ready

Morphettville race 1: Latvian Amber

Morphettville race 8: Mega Queen

PROVINCIAL MAIL

Newcastle race 3: Retune

Newcastle race 5: Oakfield Invader

Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.