Thursday, September 5, 2013

The Hunter's vote no longer a sure thing - ABC Online


One of the nation's most renowned Labor strongholds, the ALP's dominance in this area was such that the Liberals often struggled to find candidates willing to run in such a one-horse race.


But when Liberal Tim Owens took the seat of Newcastle from Labor at the last State election, it signalled that the winds of change were blowing.


While most of our local electorates are still considered very safe Labor seats, it's likely that after this election those big margins might be considerably smaller.


Of course there's one local seat where there won't be a Liberal candidate running at all.


In a scandal that made national news, the Liberal candidate for Charlton, Kevin Baker, withdrew from the contest after it was revealed that several years ago he was associated with an online forum which included distasteful jokes.


After his withdrawal the Liberal Party decided to cease campaigning in the area, but Baker's name will still appear on the ballot paper even though he won't be in the running.


There was already considerable attention on the seat of Charlton, which was previously held by Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, who announced his retirement after Kevin Rudd was reinstated as Labor leader.


The seat is mainly based around the western side of Lake Macquarie, and takes in the Newcastle suburbs of Wallsend and Cardiff as well as Toronto, Wangi Wangi and Morisset. Coal mining and electricity generation are features of the local economy.


A relatively new seat, Charlton was created in 1984 and was previously held by Labor's Bob Brown, who was a Minister in the Hawke and Keating governments, and then his daughter, Kelly Hoare.


The candidates for Charlton are Labor's Pat Conroy, the Greens' Dessie Kocher, Bronwyn Reid for the Palmer United Party, Brian Burston for One Nation, Steve Camilleri for the Christian Democratic Party and Trevor Anthoney for Bullet Train for Australia.


Charlton is considered a very safe Labor seat, with a margin of 12.5%.


The Liberal candidate running for the seat of Newcastle, Jaimie Abbott, has the weight of history against her.


Newcastle is the only original Federal seat in the country that has never been held by the Liberal Party, and has had only five MPs in the 112 years since Federation, all of them Labor.


Jaimie, no relation to the Opposition Leader despite rumours to the contrary, attracted her share of controversy after using the phrase "fight for my country" regarding the time she spent in Afghanistan as a member of the defence forces.


Critics questioned whether such a term was appropriate for her role as a media advisor based in Kabul.


For the ALP it's a tale of two Sharons, with Sharon Claydon hoping to take over from retiring member Sharon Grierson, a firm supporter and close friend of Julia Gillard, who has held the seat since 2001.


Taking in the CBD, port and surrounding suburbs, the seat also includes Stockton, Williamtown and lower Hunter towns such as Thornton and Beresfield.


It encompasses everything from expensive beachside neighbourhoods to industrial zones and the large RAAF base.


Aside from the ALP and Liberals, a big field of candidates includes Zane Alcorn from the Socialist Alliance, Michael Osborne for the Greens, Independents Rod Holding, Susanna Scurry and Lawrence Higgins, Michael Chehoff of Australia First, Yegon McLellan for Palmer United and Milton Caine with the Christian Democrats.


With a margin of 12.5%, it's unlikely Labor's historic record in Newcastle will be blemished.


Adjacent to Newcastle is the beachside, coastal electorate of Shortland, which stretches down the eastern side of Lake Macquarie.


Squeezed between the lake and the ocean, it takes in Redhead, Charlestown, Belmont, Swansea and Budgewoi.


Created in 1949, it's had only three Federal members, all ALP. Jill Hall has held Shortland since 1998.


Her Liberal opponent, John Church, is a familiar face due to his time at NBN television, and is well-known in local business and media circles.


He's run a high-profile campaign, but with a margin of 12.9% the seat is still considered very safe Labor.


The other candidates are the Greens' Jane Oakley, Philip Baldwin from Palmer United and Andrew Weatherstone from the Christian Democratic Party.


The only marginal seat in our region is Paterson, held by the Liberals with a margin of 5.3%.


Bob Baldwin has been local member since 2001, and also held the seat previously between 1996 and 1998.


One of the more varied electorates, Paterson includes the Hunter River towns of Raymond Terrace, Morpeth and East Maitland, as well as the tourism and retirement mecca of Port Stephens and the agricultural areas around Dungog and Stroud.


It has one of the highest proportions of over-65 voters in the country.


Named after the poet Banjo Paterson, the seat has done a vanishing and reappearing act, first created in 1949 but abolished in 1984.


The current incarnation of Paterson was created in 1993 as a lower Hunter seat, when it was won by Labor's Bob Horne.


This ushered in an era of a "two-Bob" contest, with Baldwin taking the seat in 1996, Horne turning the tables in 1998, and Baldwin bouncing back in 2001.


Since 2001, the holiday towns of Forster and Tuncurry have been added to the electorate, aiding a drift towards the Liberals.


Bob Baldwin's saturation television advertising has been a feature of his campaign.


Labor's candidate is 70-year-old Bay Marshall, a retired primary school teacher.


The other candidates are Palmer United's Jayson Packett, the Greens' John Brown, Bob Holz from Rise Up Australia, Peter Davis from the Citizens Electoral Council and Anna Balfour from the Christian Democratic Party.


Hunter is also considered a safe Labor seat, with a margin of 12.5%.


It's been held by Joel Fitzgibbon since 1996. The 51-year-old is the son of former Member Eric Fitzgibbon, continuing a long tradition of local Labor MPs passing their seats onto their children.


The seat has been in hands of the Fitzgibbon family since 1984.


A former ally of Mark Latham, Joel served as Defence Minister under Kevin Rudd during his first stint as PM, and recently returned to the front bench as Minister for Agriculture.


The electorate of Hunter is an original seat since Federation, and its illustrious first Member was also Australia's first Prime Minister, Edmund Barton.


It's been held by Labor since 1910, and its past Members also include Labor legend "Doc" Evatt.


Starting from the lower Hunter around Cessnock, Maitland and Kurri Kurri, the seat extends west and north up the New England Highway to take in Singleton and Muswellbrook.


It's a volatile mix of agriculture and heavy industry, with the interests of coal mines and electricity generation often at environmental odds with some of the nation's finest vineyards, horse studs and beef-cattle grazing land.


Hunter has a very low proportion of residents born overseas or with university qualifications, and has the second-highest proportion of mineworkers in the country.


The Nationals' candidate is Michael Johnsen, who previously contested the seat in 1996 and 2010, and is currently Upper Hunter Mayor.


David Atwell is running for the Greens, Ann Lawler for the Citizens Electoral Council, Bill Fox for One Nation, Jennifer Stefanac for Palmer United and Richard Stretton for the Christian Democratic Party.


Be listening to 1233 ABC Newcastle for our national election coverage, but for progress reports on local seats keep an eye on our Facebook page and Twitter account. You can also watch the results unfolding on Hunter Votes.



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